John Lynch (Executive Vice President Marketing, Sandals Group) is the new Chairman of the Jamaica Tourist Board. The Government couldn’t have chosen a better person, says the head of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association, Wayne Cummings (General Manager of Sandals Negril). The Opposition says there is clear conflict of interest between working for a major player in the industry and chairing the tourist board.
The only people with sufficient clout to object (the Issa family, who own Super Clubs, Couples and Swept Away) are silent (so far). Perhaps for good reason - the only similar conflict of interest in this particular post occurred when John Issa, Chairman of Super Clubs, chaired the Tourist Board under the last JLP administration in the 1980’s.
Butch Stewart, Chairman of the Sandals Group, and major financial backer of the current JLP government, is so irritated at the Opposition’s suggestion that his employees should not now control all aspects of the local industry (he’s paid good money for this, after all) that he’s accusing the former PNP administration of having sold their soul to foreign investors. The foreign investors now in possession of the PNP’s soul are doubtless the Riu Group, the Fiesta Group, the Grupo Pinero, Iberostar et al. Hope the PNP’s soul is worth something, because it seems to me that these investors are in for a very rough ride indeed………….
The late and unlamented Minister of Industry, Commerce and Energy, Phillip Paulwell, is under fire again over those free light bulbs he got from Cuba. Turns out that the fluorescent light bulbs were free and they were handed out by Cubans, but the Government of Jamaica agreed to pay transportation, handling, storage etc etc .
The monies paid for these expenses went to some little known company that didn’t bid for the job, and isn’t registered with the National Contracts Commission…….How much do you want to bet that the little known company will turn out to be owned by a PNP crony or even by Phillip Paulwell himself……
Wonder whether it will take two, three or five years to discover the exact extent of Phillip Paulwell’s ‘youthful exuberances’…….He must be first on the list of potential former Ministers to go to jail (you haven’t forgotten Portia sending J.A.G. Smith- her JLP predecessor as Minister of Labour- to prison for stealing farmworkers’ money, have you ? Someone in the PNP is going to have to pay for that …..)
(1) The new government is actually going to fund Parish Councils by allowing them to collect and keep property taxes. Could be the start of something good. However, I’ll believe it when I see it, and I only expect to see it if the JLP retains control of most of the Parish Councils in the upcoming Local Government Elections………..
(2) Colonel Trevor McMillan (former head of the police force, former head of the Revenue Protection Division) is to be a Special Advisor to the Ministry of Finance and Public Service. This is one of those jobs that involves rooting out corruption and going after corrupt people (in other words, treading on the corns of important private sector persons, dons from both parties, and sundry ’small people’who will complain they ‘just want to eat a bread’…..)
This is also a believe-it-when-you-see-it deal, but with former Minister of National Security Peter Phillips to help him, Colonel McMillan may succeed in locking up a few PNP cronies and officials whom Peter Phillips would just as soon have out of the way (Phillip Paulwell, yuh really in trouble boy…..).
Air Jamaica’s future (or the deathwatch continues)
Shirley Williams, who, as head of Metropolitan Parks and Markets cleaned up Kingston in the 1980’s, has been given the job of fixing the problem that is Air Jamaica. The new Chairman promptly dispensed with the services of the CEO and said that she won’t be replacing him as she is looking for a partner to take the airline off the government’s budget, and the partner will likely want to put in their own CEO. Sounds good, and the kind of tough talk we expect from Shirley Williams.
Also sounds a bit optimistic as the ex-CEO confessed that Air Jamaica is not profitable on one single route. Not one single route….. Might be more of a loss leader than even Virgin Atlantic could think of taking on…….
Outcome of September 3 general election
D.K. Duncan, PNP, is to be declared the winner of the Eastern Hanover seat on Thursday. Final tally : JLP 32 seats, PNP 28 seats. Any changes after this will be a result of court action and not the choice of the electorate……
The courts will get a first look at the U.S. citizenship cases on October 31st (Daryl Vaz having asked to postpone the October 16 hearing, because he changed lawyers……)
Education and gender
Good news about boys at some of our boy’s schools doing very well in their exams has not damped down the arguing about women in tertiary education. Peter Espeut puts the blame on the colonial administration, UWI gender experts point out that doing well at university hasn’t translated into money and power for women, and Carolyn Cooper is annoyed that men are upset….
Meanwhile, we take note that in quite different societies with quite different histories (Norway, Iran and Saudi Arabia to name a few) the majority of university students are female…..
Beenie Man failed to show in court today to tell the judge about J$47 million in unpaid taxes. He’s been having a lousy year what with the whole of Jamaica discussing his divorce from D’Angel and trying to figure out his/her motives…….A warrant has been issued for his arrest.
Real money issues
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) has ‘revealed’ what every Jamaican knew already - inflation is way higher than the previous government let on. The new basket of goods for judging inflation shows inflation is 75% higher than previously stated. Glad to know that I wasn’t hallucinating the constant increase in prices over the last two years….
The new government is heavily into reviewing and revising the government machinery - reviews have ordered of everything from the health care system to Kingston’s drainage. We’ve also had lots of straight talk about “no quick fixes” .
This is all wonderful and very necessary (no doubt) BUT…in the past couple of months, price increases have reached us in everything from flour to chicken to rice to cement. The Jamaican dollar is following the U.S. dollar into the toilet. The economy is tanking. The schools still haven’t received their ‘free tuition’ money from the government…..Clean up after Hurricane Dean is stalling for lack of money….
Whatever the new government is planning to do for us, I’m thinking they should be starting right about now…..
Shame and scandal in the family: Yu father not yu father, but yu father don’t know…….
The Sunday Gleaner gave us something to talk about this week: DNA tests to prove paternity in Jamaica result in one third of Jamaican men doing the test finding out that they are not the baby father. This is supposedly higher than in other countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. Much shock and much cussing all round.
So does this prove Jamaican women are more promiscuous, wickeder etc than women in other countries ? No, but it probably proves what we know already: - all the men who go around boasting that they have “nuff gal” are NOT just talking, and they are also NOT defying the laws of mathematics (see this New York Times article about the mathematical impossibility of a population with a lot of promiscuous men and a lot of chaste women).
Jamaican men have “nuff gal” AND Jamaican women have “nuff man” - it’s just that Jamaican women know better than to boast, and Jamaican men hate being reminded that their girlfriends and wives are not waiting quietly at home while they go out to check out the new ting…….
Making the airline profitable by following yet another model, this time it’s the Sri Lankan model
What we can look forward to:
(1)A few more years of massive losses
(2) More chest-pounding talk about national pride
(3) Several more changes of the Board and the CEO
(4) Virgin Atlantic taking market share from Air Jamaica and British Airways (try flying Virgin just once to understand why Air Jamaica can’t make it)
(1) Minister Without Portfolio Don Wehby getting an education in the difference between public and private sector fiscal management
(2) New taxes
(3) Growth (well, let’s hope and pray)
Get the hundreds of buses awaiting repair back on the road
What we can look forward to:
(1) More buses on the road
(2) Renaming of the losses as “government subsidy” (but, hopefully, not until after some significant loss reduction has occurred)
For the Local Government Elections
The elections are to be held as scheduled (i.e. before the end of December 2007)
What we can look forward to:
(1) Polls, polls, and more polls
(2) Analysts explaining why the polls are wrong
(1) Lot of argument about the performance of the four Scotland Yardies and whether they should stay or go…..
Total amnesia section
Venture capitalists ? Business leaders are supporting the establishment of a venture capital fund, as suggested by banker Ryland Campbell. This is because it’s a good way to kick start new businesses and help young entrepreneurs.
Also because the failure of previous venture capitalists to kick start new businesses (for example, Dennis Lalor and David Panton’s Caribbean Equity Partners; the Noel Lyon headed Jamaica Venture Fund; the government’s notorious Intech Fund/Universal Access Fund set up by the gone-but-not-forgotten Phillip Paulwell) should not prevent Mr. Campbell from throwing his money in the same direction……
Also just because we have neglected education year after year, and crime has exploded, and every single analysis tells us that the criminals are poor, uneducated and unemployable young males, this is absolutely no reason to change our short-term quick-fix approach….. Absolutely no reason….
Beautiful women in politics - David Panton section
Wendy Fitzwilliam and son, Ailan
Lisa Hanna and son, Alexander
Miss World 1993 Lisa Hanna won her seat in recent general elections in Jamaica and now represents the people of South East St. Ann in Parliament.
Both ladies have sons with David Panton, one time JLP candidate and Jamaican venture capitalist. Mr. Panton now resides in Atlanta and appears to have shelved his own political ambitions for the time being…..
Still pending: - the outcome of the September 3 general election
As a few cynics have pointed out, Bora (at US $1million a year) costs Jamaica more than the annual salaries of Prime Minister Golding and his entire 18 member Cabinet…..And in November, he’ll have been here for a year…… So what has Bora done for us lately ? (Or ever, for that matter ? No offence meant…..)
The Prime Minister plans to revamp Parliament’s website (now defunct , of course, as it was another Phillip Paulwell effort) to allow greater access to Parliamentary documents. Good news for serious bloggers (I don’t mean me)
Same old, same old….
Jamaica is ranked more corrupt than ever by Transparency International. No big surprise after Trafigura, Solutrea and other youthful exuberances of former Minister Phillip Paulwell et al.
The JLP’s Tarn Peralto wins South East St. Mary after counting of two remaining ballot boxes. Seat count still 33- 27.
Or chickens coming home to roost ?
Abe Dabdoub (PNP) challenges Minister Without Portfolio Daryl Vaz’s U.S. passport in court on October 16.
Next up, Oswest Senior Smith (PNP) challenges Minister Without Portfolio Shahine Robinson’s U.S. passport; followed by Phyllis Mitchell (PNP) challenge to JLP’s Gregory Mair’s Venezuelan passport.
Abe Dabdoub, long time JLP lawyer, now PNP lawyer, says that the citizenship challenges are not likely to take years because the rules have changed and judges can now set the timetable for cases (attorneys used to be able to delay and put off cases at will)…….
If the PNP wins the 3 pending citizenship cases (shifting the seat count to a PNP lead of 31 to 29) will they really try to take back the government, when the voters gave the JLP a 4 seat victory ?
What happens if the PNP win only 2 of the citizenship cases (Daryl Vaz maintains his U.S. citizenship comes through his mother, which is permitted under the Constitution) and the seat count is 30-30 ?
It’s sort of hard to believe that anyone misses Phillip Paulwell or Peter Phillips or Maxine Henry-Wilson or Omar Davies…..
On the other hand, there are a lot of people who just discovered that all politicians talk out of both sides of their mouths, namely:-
(1) Parents who’ve now realized that free tuitiondoesn’t cover books or ’school development fees’ or extra-curricular activities, and that these costs always made up the majority of school fees.
(2) The nurses who say they have a DVD of Minister of Finance Audley Shaw promising them a 100% increase in pay at their Founder’s Day celebrations in the not-so-distant past (July 2006). He says he never did. They say they are not going to use the DVD until salary negotiations next April….just a little warning to the government that even though the nurses (and doubtless, the police and teachers) know that the JLP was just electioneering when all these wild promises were made, they intend to remind them of these promises “when time come….”
“When time come” is likely to be rather sooner than next April.
“When time come” is likely to be when Prime Minister Golding has to call an election :-
EITHER the Local Government elections which are due by December 2007
OR a by-election in a seat(s) where the JLP winner has been removed by the courts
OR a general election if no other compromise can be found and the Government is holding a minority of seats in Parliament.
Once any sort of election is called, campaigning will begin and that is when the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance will have to account for promises made……
Today’s Gleaner (Sept 29, 07) suggests that the JLP has a Plan B to deal with their “marginal victory problem” - purchase a few M.P.’s from the Opposition, preferably those that used to be Labourites….
Next few months should be fun for the onlookers (those of you living outside Jamaica) and sure to be hell for those of us here on island….
Trinidad catches election fever
Trinis will go to the polls on November 5, 2007. Thanks to Island Spice and Caribbean Free Radio for telling us about the hilarious secret blog of Prime Minister of Trinidad, Patrick Manning. Calling all Jamaican bloggers ! What about ‘The Secret Diary of Sister P’ ? Or “The Private Thoughts of Your New Prime Minister by Bruce Golding “? Wonder if PM Manning has any advice for PM Golding about how to govern with a hung Parliament …….( Trinidad had general elections in December 2000, December 2001 and October 2002….due to slim or no majorities for the PNM or the UNC…….)
The counting of the 2 uncounted ballot boxes in South East St. Mary continues to be blocked by the JLP’s lawyers who want the JLP’s Tarn Peralto’s victory to stand.
The outcome of the recounts is desperately important to the newly installed JLP government. If one seat goes to the PNP, the JLP/PNP split will be 32- 28, or a 4 seat margin. If both seats go to the PNP, this means a 31-29 split, or a 2 seat majority for the JLP (effectively a margin of one, since the Speaker only votes to break a tie.)
What this would mean is the Prime Minister could not afford to alienate or discipline a single member of his parliamentary majority. The past few years saw a fairly constant dribble of caretakers, M.P.’s and Senators switching parties - the main effect then was an opportunity for point scoring on either side, but it had no real effect on the fortunes of either party.
Now, a single M.P. deciding to cross the floor would throw the ruling party and government into crisis.
Prime Minister Golding and his Cabinet Ministers
In a slightly more perfect Jamaica, the Prime Minister would be able to rely on all his M.P.’s to stay in line and with the JLP, on the grounds that after 18 years in Opposition, no JLP M.P. would even be contemplating risking the JLP’s opportunity to govern.
In the Jamaica we live in, disaffected M.P.’s may well decide that revenge is sweeter than humble pie.
And who might be disaffected after only a few days in government? Well, Minister of Finance Audley Shaw might be somewhat miffed over all the excitement over Don Wehby, who is NOT a junior minister but a full cabinet minister with responsibilities in the Ministry of Finance. After all, what is it that Don Wehby expects to do in regard to the massive national debt that Audley Shaw is not expected to be able to do ? Press for a massive new tax package on citizens ? Press for massive cuts in spending ? Either route looks likely to lead to a super quick return to the polls and a JLP defeat.
What he needs is a workable majority in Parliament - 33-27 - for at least the next two years.
Without this, both the Prime Minister and the PNP are only counting the days, weeks and months to the next election.
Without this, Prime Minister Golding is looking at taking the blame for the PNP’s massive build-up of debt, by being able to do nothing about it.
Without this, Prime Minister Golding is hostage to the desires (no matter how ridiculous) and the requirements (no matter how unreasonable) of every member of his 31 member government (18 Cabinet Ministers, 11 Ministers of State, 2 Parliamentary Secretaries).
And, by the way, this is probably the most likely explanation for the ending of the weekly post Cabinet press briefings (now to take place on the following day, Tuesday). No disrespect for the press was probably intended, but certain political realities have to be attended to i.e. unpopular Cabinet decisions have to be communicated to other members of the government and private sector party supporters before these decisions become generally known. Egos will have to be soothed, promises given (and, where necessary, veiled threats made) BEFORE post-Cabinet press briefings take place, to ensure that they do not turn into debacles for the Government.
Interesting times.
In the meantime, we can look forward to the new appointments to Government Boards (crucial for cash cows such as the Urban Development Corporation- which is one of the biggest players in the construction industry- and the CHASE Fund - which is sitting on hundreds of millions of lottery proceeds).
We can look forward to Andrew Holness’ attempts to deal with the unholy bureaucracy that is the Ministry of Education.
We can look forward to Minister of Information, Culture, Youth, Sports and Gender Affairs Babsy Grange using her Ministry to do something for the crime plagued and poverty stricken residents of Spanish Town.
We can look forward to the new Government doing its best to change Jamaica’s course as far as is possible, given their political realities and the country’s economic realities.
As for the Opposition, it is truly a Government-in-waiting…….
Wondering about crime and the new National Security Minister Derrick Smith ? What’s on his plate is this : - Murders are up 23% over 2006.
Anyone who has visited either the Riu Ocho Rios or Mammee Bay will know that if the water at Mammee Bay is polluted, the waters at the Riu Ocho Rios must also be polluted.
So, is it that the Riu discourages its guests from swimming in the sea, or is it that their guests think the waters of the Caribbean are naturally a slimy, stinking mess ?
We have forgotten that there used to be a consensus that women were disadvantaged compared to men in every aspect of adult life - jobs, opportunities, incomes, career choices, prospects for promotion, ability to plan their family, ability to live independently, ability to avoid poverty and abuse…. Women’s low status in society was supposed to encourage male abuse and to have a detrimental effect on the life chances of children whose mothers were poor and illiterate. There used to be a consensus that the only way for women to improve their status in society was to get an education….
So generations of parents, teachers and community leaders encouraged girls to choose education and a job over early motherhood and dependence on a man. This strategy seems to have worked. Now we are hearing that the problem is that men aren’t getting educated at a rate that will allow them to maintain their traditional dominance over women in the workplace. Now male abuse is said to be the result of women’s improved status in society……..Why am I not surprised ?
The JLP squeaked home and we have a new government. Despite Portia’s supremely ungracious ‘not conceding’ speech - she must have had coaching from her old friend Eddie Seaga - I shall miss her. We can count on the PNP spending the next year squabbling, and Peter Phillips trying to take over as PNP Party President and Leader of the Opposition within a year. This would be the best outcome for the JLP, since a Peter Phillips-led PNP will present no real alternative government. However, Portia has shown that she intends to fight on for now …….
JLP candidates that won, generally won by healthy margins. Most ironic PNP loss is probably of the St Elizabeth South Eastern seat where sitting PNP MP Len Blake was pushed aside for flip flopping Norman Horne (PNP, JLP,PNP) only for Horne to be beaten by the JLP’s Franklyn Witter.
The pollsters were correct - Don Anderson was again the most accurate by giving the JLP the edge in an election that was “too close to call”.
The popular vote split 50/50 with the JLP edging the PNP by between 3,000 to 4,000 votes nationwide.
Looking forward
From the moment of Bruce Golding’s statesmanlike and conciliatory victory speech, the pundits began speculating about how long a Government with one seat majority in Parliament can last. Over the ensuing days the count shifted in favour of the JLP. In theory, a 33-27 majority could hold for 5 years.
(2) Two JLP MP’s (Shahine Robinson and Gregory Mair) are known to fail the constitutional test for M.P.’s (no swearing of allegiance to a foreign country) in respect of their US and Venezuelan passports. Once these cases have proceeded through the courts, their PNP counterparts will be declared victors by default and the JLP would only have a 1 seat majority (one member of the governing party must act as Speaker of the House - now Mr. Delroy Chuck - and does not vote except to break a tie).
A Portia-led PNP is walking a high wire as well. If they push the Prime Minister to a too early election (within six months) they may alienate some of their own supporters. Portia also needs to get rid of some of the old guard, but even those who lost their seats like Horace Dalley will not like the prospect of getting ‘real jobs’, while senior figures like Peter Phillips cannot be moved short of a massively prestigious and lucrative international job. In favour of Portia and an early PNP return to office will be all those whose noses have been abruptly removed from the trough - as long as the JLP looks shaky in government these folk will work night and day to get Sister P back in office, their preference for Peter Phillips as leader not withstanding…..The PNP also has to deal with the fact that even if they win an election within the next two years, it is hardly likely that they will get a large majority of seats, so internal divisions have to dealt with now, or we could have the government changing hands several times in the next five or six years……..
In the meantime, expect us Jamaicans to get little change of course in the economy, and for the JLP both to concentrate on the poorer classes (free secondary education and free health care at public hospitals from April 2008) and to disappoint some of their well-heeled supporters when it comes to the immediate hand-out of jobs, contracts and other goodies.
Big JLP supporters like Gordon “Butch” Stewart”, owner of the Jamaica Observer and the Sandals/Beaches hotels, will expect (and get) quicker returns on their investment. Look for the government to finally start enforcing environmental regulations and labour laws at the Spanish hotels (those already built and those under construction) and look for these hotels to experience myriad “labour” and other troubles. The curse of the sea turtle will at last become apparent……
All in all, it seems to me that the election has had a most satisfactory outcome for the vast majority of Jamaicans who can expect a shaky government to pay lots of attention to meeting their needs for good health and education, jobs and better infrastructure, and who can expect non bread and butter issues (like constitutional change) to stay on the back burner……
Crime management ? Crime reduction ? Let’s wait and see.
