Jamaica and the World

This morning the Breakfast Club asked if the Prime Minister should call an election now. The almost universal consensus from callers was No Way ! No Election Now !

But does PM Bruce have any choice ? Since Daryl Vaz, who claims to have U.S. citizenship through his mother, has been ruled ineligible to sit in the House of Parliament, this means that, although no judge has yet ruled on the cases against Gregory Mair (JLP, St. Catherine) and Shahine Robinson(JLP, St.Ann), these M.P’s - who are dual citizens by their own act - are definitely ineligible. And there are cases pending against Michael Stern (JLP, Clarendon) and at least one other JLP MP (anyone remember who this is ?).

No matter how many PNP M.P.’s also have dual citizenship, this cannot concern the Prime Minister since he does not have any cases pending against these M.P.’s re their eligibility. In any case, these PNP M.P.’s (whoever they are) can make sure they do what Daryl Vaz has done belatedly - go to the U.S. Embassy and renounce their citizenship. Since PM Golding has to give at least 3 weeks notice of an election they will have ample warning.

Prime Minister Golding

Many callers this morning suggested that the Prime Minister just wait for each case to come up and then hold a by-election. He would be almost certain to keep his 4 seat majority if he does this.

But….But…..But…..I’m sure Mr. Golding would like to increase his majority. Some 31 of his 32 Members of Parliament are part of the government (18 Cabinet Ministers, 11 Ministers of State, 2 Parliamentary Secretaries). I think Gregory Mair is the JLP’s only back bencher…….. Which means that Bruce cannot discipline a single member of the Government without risking that person either crossing the floor or refusing to vote with the Government. Any unresolved Cabinet dispute could lead to the fall of the government.

His small majority puts some of the young men in the party - Daryl Vaz, James Robertson, Bobby Montague - in positions of overwhelming influence. Who or what can restrain them when they know that the Prime Minister cannot ?

Plus although there are PNP M.P.’s with tiny majorities ( D.K. Duncan) or small majorities (Peter Bunting, Derrick Kellier) there are also JLP M.P.’s who squeaked home (Tarn Peralto over Harry Douglas, St. Aubyn Bartlett over Trevor Munroe).

At this point, the pundits and pollsters agree that the JLP is unlikely to lose any election held soon, but all bets are off with (1) a new leader for the PNP (2) continued out of control food prices (3) continued out of control murder rate (4) any JLP corruption scandals - remember the first PNP scandals about furniture and such like, took place very early in the administration…….

I think Bruce has to call an election this year,whether he likes it or not, and this is what he has to figure out : When ?

When, will determine whether he runs against Portia or Peter Phillips.

And when may also determine whether the JLP wins or not.

So when will it be ? What’s your take on the date ?

“Lewis Hamilton: My Story” (Lewis Hamilton)

Sonific.com is going offline soon, so no more music on this blog. Sorry.

Daryl Vaz is a U.S. citizen it seems……. Another General Election on the way……Bad news for all of us.

And Xaymaca recommends two new Jamaican bloggers:

Annie Paul

and

Rain Fly

Cuban lightbulbs smash around Kern’s ears

To quote Michael Manley, “for the first time, at last,” a PNP politician (Kern Spencer, former Minister of State for former Super Minister Paulwell) has been charged with fraud.

Some may think that former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson should have received that honour, and I think that Phillip Paulwell should have won the “First to be jailed in revenge for J.A.G Smith” award, but never mind. Kern wins on the basis of his monumental, most easily exposed fraud, or, to give a nod to the judicial process, let’s say he is much nearer the finish line than Patterson or Paulwell.

Still, despite Paulwell being a lawyer, and despite him handing Kern the rope to hang himself, I am not giving up on the new government sending Paulwell to prison for at least one of his tieferies….There is still time…….

Mr Vaz’s American citizenship

Perhaps because there is a another general election riding on it, our newish Portia-appointed Chief Justice Zaila McCalla has yet to say whether Minister of State Daryl Vaz is :

(a) a pretend American citizen (got his citizenship thru his mother, so everyone calm down and stop counting the days to the next general election)

(b) a real American citizen (general election on the way, everyone panic)

Crime rate

Up! Down ! Up ! Down !

Calling all male Jamaicans ! We love you ! We need you ! Stop acting like you’re irrelevant and that it doesn’t matter whether you live or die !!!

Air Jamaica Death Watch

This will never be over……Never….Ever….

Updating our Abortion laws

Jamaicans are getting fed up with the pretense that we are a God-fearing people who have special and unique objections to killing foetuses. Mother Nature does it all the time. Some Jamaican doctors claim to have done it thousands of times.

Hope the Government has the courage of the Medical Association of Jamaica and passes an abortion bill similar to what prevails in the United Kingdom.

After that, how about Jamaicans stop memorizing passages out of Leviticus and start memorizing, “Love thy neighbour as thy self”. Shortly thereafter we could repeal our hateful, colonial-era sodomy laws…….

And, while we’re talking about changing the world as we know it

What are the chances of March 4, 2008 (Texans and Ohioans vote in the Democratic primaries) being the day that Senator Obama sends Senator Clinton home to dream about the Presidential Election of 2016 ?

I’m hoping and praying. I’m also wondering how many of Obama’s Jamaican boosters know that he has stood up in front of black congregations and told them that, as believing Christians, they should be ashamed of their hatred for gays………

The new government has :

(1) given us a new police commissioner, ex Jamaica Defence Force chief, Hardley Lewin.

No crime plan yet and we desperately need one as murder spirals (it was already out of control, let’s just say it is more out of control). The spike in the murder of policemen is depressing the morale of the force, not to mention the majority of us citizens who rely on the police, not security guards, for our protection……The raid on Tivoli, the killing of five young men and the calls for an inquiry are all depressingly same old, same old…..

(2) attacked corruption by moving to clean up the bus company, the JUTC, and the National Slush Fund Management Agency. Not to mention bringing in the Dutch to investigate Trafigura.…..

(3) continued the more distasteful practices of all previous governments by

rewarding unsuccessful candidates (Joan Gordon Webley) with political jobs (she’s Executive Director of the NSWMA otherwise known as the National Slush Fund Management Agency);

by abusing Prime Ministerial power and disregarding the law (dismissal of the Public Services Commission “for misconduct”)

by failing to demand accountability from its Ministers (Bobby Montague is still in the Cabinet)

(4) given us the welcome news that Air Jamaica is to be divested by 2009 (latest) Only better news re Air Jamaica would be if Minister Wehby announced that if the airline cannot be sold, it will be closed down to stop further massive losses accruing to the Jamaican taxpayer……

(5) bowed to reality and admitted that Jamaica is set for it’s best ever year for tourist arrivals in 2008 (this despite Mr. Gordon “Butch” Stewart’s slander against the previous Minister of Tourism Aloun Assamba and her team at the Tourist Board)

(6) given more work to the French builders of Highway 2000 . Big up Bouguyes Travaux - the highway is still a pleasure and a relief to drive, especially if one is driving AWAY from Kingston ! I’m still waiting to hear why it is the “French” roads don’t dissolve into a strip of grit and potholes like our “Jamaican” roads do whenever it rains……

(7) presided helplessly over price increases - every Jamaican is spending a bigger portion of their income on food and transportation just like citizens everywhere on the planet (except possibly Venezuela …..)
The new government hasn’t:

(1) given us hope of any fundamental change.

(2) lost the support of it’s supporters. The JLP handily won the local government election on December 5.

(3) yet lost any seats to the citizenship challenges making their way through the courts.

(4) yet made us look back with fondness on the days of the PNP.

Still possible section:

Although PM Bruce has found out that the Prime Minister does NOT have too much power (as he thought when he was Leader of the Opposition), the Prime Minister may yet turn out to be ‘new and different‘.

To be ‘new and different’ Bruce needs a bigger margin of seats in Parliament so that his numerous Ministers can be disciplined by losing their Cabinet posts if they mess up.

Another general election which gives him a bigger margin in Parliament may yet enable him to deliver on his good governance promises. Otherwise, all the cleaning up of corruption in various parts of the government will likely come to naught, as the ‘cleaned out’ PNP supporters are replaced with ‘hungry’ JLP supporters…

As for Her Majesty’s loyal Opposition, they are still getting used to the idea that they lost the election and will lose the one likely to be held this year. There doesn’t look like there will be a challenge from Peter Phillips right now and the man of the moment, Peter Bunting, is positioning himself for the General Secretary of the PNP , the better to run for the leadership in three or four years time…..Good luck with that, Peter…While you’re clearly the best candidate, Mr Phillip Paulwell et al are not likely to think that Paulwell’s history of scandal and incompetence are any reason to disqualify him from leadership and will act accordingly. Watch your back !

Xaymaca’s 2008 predictions ! Hot ! Fresh ! Implausible !

1. Jamaicans will never recover their enthusiasm for Portia. We will look back at that love affair and wonder what it was all about……..If the PNP lose a general election this year, Sister P will graciously retire and allow Peter Phillips to take over as Leader of the Opposition……This will set the stage for Peter Phillips similarly gracious retirement shortly before the end of the JLP’s ‘first term’ to allow Mr Bunting or Mr Paulwell to lead the party into the next general election…..

2. Jamaicans will concentrate on holding our corner. As the American economy tanks, we’ll look back at our early 21st century plans and ambitions and wonder why we bought into the idea that we could be a first world country any time soon…..Our housing market will collapse and numerous young professionals will vanish from the island leaving behind massive debts…..

3.Thousands of new Jamaicans (also new Bajans, new Trinis, new Dominicans etc) will arrive in the Caribbean from China……

4. Local radio stations will start issuing hourly bulletins on the state of the Palisadoes road along with the flight arrivals and departures…..

5. Persons previously obsessed with Jamaican politics will spend all their time being obsessed with American presidential politics….

6. Barack Obama will defy Hillary and all predictions and become the U.S. President-elect……

“Eat, Pray, Love: One Woman’s Search for Everything Across Italy, India and Indonesia” (Elizabeth Gilbert)

Technorati Tags: Air Jamaica, corruption, crime rate, JLP, PNP, Bruce Golding, Prime Minister

Tourism

Iberostar Rose Hall

John Lynch (Executive Vice President Marketing, Sandals Group) is the new Chairman of the Jamaica Tourist Board. The Government couldn’t have chosen a better person, says the head of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association, Wayne Cummings (General Manager of Sandals Negril). The Opposition says there is clear conflict of interest between working for a major player in the industry and chairing the tourist board.

The only people with sufficient clout to object (the Issa family, who own Super Clubs, Couples and Swept Away) are silent (so far). Perhaps for good reason - the only similar conflict of interest in this particular post occurred when John Issa, Chairman of Super Clubs, chaired the Tourist Board under the last JLP administration in the 1980’s.

Butch Stewart, Chairman of the Sandals Group, and major financial backer of the current JLP government, is so irritated at the Opposition’s suggestion that his employees should not now control all aspects of the local industry (he’s paid good money for this, after all) that he’s accusing the former PNP administration of having sold their soul to foreign investors. The foreign investors now in possession of the PNP’s soul are doubtless the Riu Group, the Fiesta Group, the Grupo Pinero, Iberostar et al. Hope the PNP’s soul is worth something, because it seems to me that these investors are in for a very rough ride indeed………….

The Palmyra Rose Hall (still under construction by foreign investor…..)

On a side note, it is interesting that Mr Stewart blames his misfortunes on a cabal consisting of former tourism Minister Aloun Assamba, former State Minister of Tourism Wykeham McNeil and former Tourist Board Chairman Dennis Morrison. He also sticks it to former Minister of Finance Omar Davies. Considering that former Prime minister P.J. Patterson was responsible for bringing the Spanish hoteliers to Jamaica, and ex-Chairman of UDC, Vin Lawrence, aka God, was responsible for the massive cost overruns and building defects at Sandals Whitehouse, it suggests that Mr. Stewart thinks these gentlemen remain too powerful (or know too much) to be dissed in public, whereas his targets are has-beens who will not be back to haunt him……..

Energy

The late and unlamented Minister of Industry, Commerce and Energy, Phillip Paulwell, is under fire again over those free light bulbs he got from Cuba. Turns out that the fluorescent light bulbs were free and they were handed out by Cubans, but the Government of Jamaica agreed to pay transportation, handling, storage etc etc .

The monies paid for these expenses went to some little known company that didn’t bid for the job, and isn’t registered with the National Contracts Commission…….How much do you want to bet that the little known company will turn out to be owned by a PNP crony or even by Phillip Paulwell himself……

Wonder whether it will take two, three or five years to discover the exact extent of Phillip Paulwell’s ‘youthful exuberances’…….He must be first on the list of potential former Ministers to go to jail (you haven’t forgotten Portia sending J.A.G. Smith- her JLP predecessor as Minister of Labour- to prison for stealing farmworkers’ money, have you ? Someone in the PNP is going to have to pay for that …..)

“Consumer Guide to Home Energy Savings: All New Listings of the Most Efficient Products You Can Buy” (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy)

Serious changes

(1) The new government is actually going to fund Parish Councils by allowing them to collect and keep property taxes. Could be the start of something good. However, I’ll believe it when I see it, and I only expect to see it if the JLP retains control of most of the Parish Councils in the upcoming Local Government Elections………..

(2) Colonel Trevor McMillan (former head of the police force, former head of the Revenue Protection Division) is to be a Special Advisor to the Ministry of Finance and Public Service. This is one of those jobs that involves rooting out corruption and going after corrupt people (in other words, treading on the corns of important private sector persons, dons from both parties, and sundry ’small people’who will complain they ‘just want to eat a bread’…..)

This is also a believe-it-when-you-see-it deal, but with former Minister of National Security Peter Phillips to help him, Colonel McMillan may succeed in locking up a few PNP cronies and officials whom Peter Phillips would just as soon have out of the way (Phillip Paulwell, yuh really in trouble boy…..).

Colonel Trevor McMillan

Woolmer death

The coroner’s inquest is turning out to be a re-run of the murder investigation with feuding pathologists, conflicting witnesses and all sorts of contradictory evidence…..

Air Jamaica’s future (or the deathwatch continues)

Shirley Williams, who, as head of Metropolitan Parks and Markets cleaned up Kingston in the 1980’s, has been given the job of fixing the problem that is Air Jamaica. The new Chairman promptly dispensed with the services of the CEO and said that she won’t be replacing him as she is looking for a partner to take the airline off the government’s budget, and the partner will likely want to put in their own CEO. Sounds good, and the kind of tough talk we expect from Shirley Williams.

Also sounds a bit optimistic as the ex-CEO confessed that Air Jamaica is not profitable on one single route. Not one single route….. Might be more of a loss leader than even Virgin Atlantic could think of taking on…….

Outcome of September 3 general election

D.K. Duncan, PNP, is to be declared the winner of the Eastern Hanover seat on Thursday. Final tally : JLP 32 seats, PNP 28 seats. Any changes after this will be a result of court action and not the choice of the electorate……

The courts will get a first look at the U.S. citizenship cases on October 31st (Daryl Vaz having asked to postpone the October 16 hearing, because he changed lawyers……)

Education and gender

Good news about boys at some of our boy’s schools doing very well in their exams has not damped down the arguing about women in tertiary education. Peter Espeut puts the blame on the colonial administration, UWI gender experts point out that doing well at university hasn’t translated into money and power for women, and Carolyn Cooper is annoyed that men are upset….

Meanwhile, we take note that in quite different societies with quite different histories (Norway, Iran and Saudi Arabia to name a few) the majority of university students are female…..

Serious tax problems

“Undisputed” (Beenie Man)

Beenie Man failed to show in court today to tell the judge about J$47 million in unpaid taxes. He’s been having a lousy year what with the whole of Jamaica discussing his divorce from D’Angel and trying to figure out his/her motives…….A warrant has been issued for his arrest.

Real money issues

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) has ‘revealed’ what every Jamaican knew already - inflation is way higher than the previous government let on. The new basket of goods for judging inflation shows inflation is 75% higher than previously stated. Glad to know that I wasn’t hallucinating the constant increase in prices over the last two years….

The new government is heavily into reviewing and revising the government machinery - reviews have ordered of everything from the health care system to Kingston’s drainage. We’ve also had lots of straight talk about “no quick fixes” .

“Wild Figments” (Michael Leunig)

This is all wonderful and very necessary (no doubt) BUT…in the past couple of months, price increases have reached us in everything from flour to chicken to rice to cement. The Jamaican dollar is following the U.S. dollar into the toilet. The economy is tanking. The schools still haven’t received their ‘free tuition’ money from the government…..Clean up after Hurricane Dean is stalling for lack of money….

Whatever the new government is planning to do for us, I’m thinking they should be starting right about now…..

And R.I.P. Lucky Dube

“The Way It Is” (Lucky Dube)

Technorati Tags: Air Jamaica, Bob Woolmer, D.K.Duncan, Fiesta Hotel, JLP, PNP, Riu Hotel