The IMF is said to be asking for at least 25,000 job cuts.

Air Jamaica will cost US$200 million to divest and/or some unnamed amount to keep it limping along.

Yes, there is nuff on PM Golding’s plate. But there are some things we can’t give him a bligh on:-

(1) Nothing has been done re the extradition of “Dudus”. Nothing except to give “Dudus” another government contract. How long can this go on without totally destroying the credibility and authority of the Prime Minister and his government ?

It is one thing for us, the voters, to gossip wildly and to continuously speculate and assert that we know which politician and which businessman is corrupt and in bed with the dons.

It is quite another for the Prime Minister to prevent the extradition of a man whom nobody, but NOBODY, is asserting has gained his power, influence or fortune by legal means. (Bunny Wailer, in case you are wondering, says he’s never met “Dudus” and is defending him based on some strange idea that the people of West Kingston need “Dudus” to rule over them, so he should be pardoned, not extradited….. Great musician Bunny Wailer. Nuff said ).

So what is the Prime Minister waiting for ? Someone to kill “Dudus” so he doesn’t have to deal with the matter ?

(2) When will there be an announcement of a by-election in East Rural St. Andrew, the constituency currently held by JLP M.P. Joseph Hibbert ? There is no question that Mr. Hibbert is guilty. He has admitted taking money from Mabey and Johnson, the British bridge building company, which subsequently received a no-bid contract from the Jamaican Government. Our Contractor-General concurs with Mr. Hibbert, and with the UK courts, that Mr. Hibbert took the money and is corrupted.

We are being told some bullshit that just because the company has been found guilty in the U.K. and just because the UK government is going to make the company pay the Jamaican government 5 million pounds in compensation for the corruption of our officials, and just because the said corrupted official is, by his own admission, Joe Hibbert, M.P. for East Rural St. Andrew, all of that doesn’t mean that Joe Hibbert is totally compromised and should resign immediately, or resign yesterday, whichever comes first…..

Then today, October 15, 2009, we hear that our Commissioner of Police Hardley Lewin is being pressured to resign. Probably because he doesn’t like the Prime Minister who is presiding over the non-extradition of “Dudus” and the non-resignation of Joe Hibbert, complaining that the Jamaica Constabulary Force isn’t doing enough to combat crime……. Yeah, right.

All I can think is that Prime Minister Golding is under the impression that it is imperative for him and his government to stay in power.

Hence nothing must be done to endanger his standing in his own constituency (the extradition of “Dudus”) and nothing must be done to endanger his slim majority in Parliament (the resignation of Joe Hibbert and the holding of a by-election).

At some point the Prime Minister should consider whether he wanted to govern Jamaica so he could make the island safe for the rule of the dons, and ensure that the likes of Kern Spencer and Joseph Hibbert can sit in Parliament no matter how corrupt they are……..

And we, the voters, have to consider if sort-of-free-health-care and sort-of-free-education are enough reason to allow this deeply disappointing government to serve out a full term……..

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Then, just as things seemed to be winding down to the usual end of summer back-to-school, money-have-to-spend and government-and teachers-must-quarrel, the U.S. authorities are treating us to a whirlwind of scandal, gossip and gambling by requesting that the JLP government of Bruce Golding render up JLP and Tivoli Gardens strongman, Christopher “Dudus” Coke unto the U.S. justice system, well known for eating up Jamaica’s bad men and spitting them out again five or ten years later, no harm done.

Christopher “Dudus”Coke and his Plantation Heights yard

So how good a story is the requested extradition of “Dudus” ? Let’s see how it breaks down:-

(1) “Dudus” father, Lester Lloyd Coke aka “Jim Brown” died in a fire in his cell on February 23, 1991. He was due to be removed to the U.S. to face trial the following day. Among those who remember “Jim Brown”, everyone has their favourite theory as to who ordered the death of “Jim Brown” – e.g. some say he committed suicide; some say Seaga ordered his death to conceal his ties to the JLP; some say he was killed by his cronies who had no doubt that he would sing like a bird once he was in a U.S. prison.

So, can “Dudus” even survive to face trial in the U.S. ? And if he is to die, who gives the order this time ? Someone in Columbia ? Someone in the U.S. ? Someone in the upper echelons of the present government ?

(2) The history of the extradition treaty between Jamaica and the U.S. since 1991 is basically about JLP dons and a PNP government. Will things be different now that “Dudus’” M.P. and the M.P. for West Kingston is Bruce Golding, the Prime Minister of Jamaica?

(3) Why is “Dudus” Coke’s lawyer, JLP Senator Tom Tavares-Finson, sounding hesitant and unsure of his ground when discussing the matter with the pro-government team at Nationwide radio ?

Where is the brash, arrogant, take-no-prisoners Tom Tavares- Finson that we have come to know (if not to love )?

Can the JLP Senator be worrying that his client’s case is all too similar to that of Norris “Deedo” Nembhard (designated a drug kingpin by George Bush, Nembhard was extradited to the U.S. in 2008, and subsequently convicted on various charges) ? Is he worried that “Dudus” will suffer the same fate as Leebert Ramcharan ?

Senator Tom Tavares-Finson

(4) Many, many times over the years we have heard that Jamaican criminals in U.S. prisons were going to sing like birds. Remember when Vivian Blake was going to ensure that dozens of Jamaican politicians and “well known businessmen” were discredited, arrested, extradited to the U.S.? Going to rot forever in an American jail ?

Instead, a mere 9 years after he received 28 years in prison, Vivian Blake is back home in Jamaica .

(5) “Dudus” has supposedly got cover from “his” government. Under the PNP, this kind of “harassment” was par for the course. Nowadays, “Dudus” is a respectable businessman who is rewarded for his loyalty in the usual manner: a few government contracts here and there.

So, what will his “coverage” be worth ? Can Prime Minister Golding really hide “Dudus” from the U.S. authorities behind his government’s skirts ?

(6) The unofficial bookmakers are taking very big bets.

What are the odds on Christopher “Dudus” Coke being extradited alive to the U.S. ? 10 to 1 ? Or more like 100 to 1 ?

What are the odds on his extradition being delayed by the Senator? For one year ? For at least four years ?

So, what’s your take on this ? Where are you putting your money ?

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In his column in the Sunday Gleaner today, he gives us the bad news. What is happening to the Jamaican economy now has happened before. He reminds us that in the 1980’s, the bauxite sector tanked, and then recovered, when worldwide demand for aluminium (cars, aircraft etc) picked up. The bauxite industry has nosedived again, but now, in the 00’s, Mr. Seaga predicts that there will likely be no revival, no coming back for the bauxite sector. The ownership of the industry has changed and the productivity of our bauxite processing plants has fallen drastically, mainly because they are not energy efficient.

Mr. Seaga’s analysis echoes that of the industry experts and that of our current Prime Minister Bruce Golding. No one is seeing much of a future for Jamaica’s bauxite industry, as there is no obvious reason why any of the current owners would want to invest the massive sums required to make our plants energy efficient. It is probably going to be cheaper for them to mine and process bauxite elsewhere.

What is interesting about Seaga’s analysis is that he points out this structural problem in Jamaica’s economy but eschews blaming the situation on anyone. The lack of blaming let’s us focus on the issues.

Bauxite has always been our number one or number two foreign exchange earner, and there is no obvious way to replace its’ US$850 million in annual foreign exchange earnings. Tourism can’t bring in that type of ADDITIONAL money, nor can remittances, while manufacturing for export he thinks is dead in the water. So he’s going with agriculture as the way to save ourselves.

I don’t know. It’s hard to imagine any JLP government following Mr. Seaga to another massive Spring Plain-like investment. (For you youngsters out there, Spring Plain was Mr. Seaga’s massive high-tech Israeli-led agricultural investment that was going to make us rich quickly by selling winter vegetables to New Yorkers, and make us rich slowly by growing tilapia, macadamia nuts, hearts of palm and other “non-traditional” crops for export. The Israeli manager of Spring Plain, Eli Tisona, is currently in prison in the U.S., serving the tenth year of his 19 year sentence for money laundering – it turns out that he was in the same “traditional” export agriculture business as many other Columbian and Jamaican farmers).

So what are we going to do to replace our new annual shortfall of US$ 850 million ? Your guess is as good as mine (or Mas’ Eddie’s). What is clear is that there’s no soft option. The first step will be going to the IMF for a bailout – strictly a short term remedy and strictly unpleasant.

In the 1980’s, PM Seaga cut government spending by making drastic cuts in public sector employment. He sent home thousands of government employees (who most Jamaicans suspected never did any work anyway….) Then he lost the 1989 election, and the next government gradually expanded public sector employment again.

So, Prime Minister Golding does have the option of saving money by firing lots of government employees. However, he cannot do it. We have only had one of the 4 citizenship by-elections, and at no time in the next 3 years will it be a good time to make job cuts. So where does that leave us ? And where does it leave the PM ?

No soft options. No easy answers. No exit.

“No Exit and Three Other Plays” (Jean-paul Sartre)

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