Follow what’s happening with the Electoral College (remember that U.S. voters vote for the 538 electors of the Electoral College , NOT for the President)

How the candidates are doing in the Electoral College is more important than how they are doing in the popular vote. Al Gore won the popular vote in the 2000 election, but George W. Bush became President because he won the Electoral College.

Barack Obama is leading by a substantial margin in the Electoral College. That is why many US commentators are already declaring him the winner despite his small and fluctuating lead in the popular vote.

For example, this morning, October 29, 2008, the Real Clear Politics site is giving Obama 311 Electoral College votes to McCain’s 157 Electoral College Votes. This means that even if McCain won all 70 remaining “toss-up” votes, he would still lose to Obama.

The blogs below provide updated Electoral College counts all day as state-by-state polls come in from various polling companies.

If you are short on time, I recommend just checking the Real Clear Politics site. This is a highly respected Republican/right wing site that is generally regarded as the standard. If you are an Obama supporter, you can be assured that the data on this site will be presented in the most dispassionate light. If you are a McCain supporter (what’s the matter with you ?!!!) you can find articles and data which present his campaign in the best possible light……

Blogs with Electoral College calculators :

Real Clear Politics (this highly recommended site tracks all Senate races as well as the Presidential race)

Politico (this is an excellent site which has also has constantly updated blogs which cover both campaigns)

FiveThirtyEight (this is a pro-Obama site for hard core stats-and-polls junkies only)

Talking Points Memo (this is a Democratic site that follows Senate and House races as well as the Presidential race)

The future of the PNP is looking very safe with the next generation of leaders : General Secretary Peter Bunting (has won 2 seats under difficult circumstances, made a fortune in banking before returning to the party, currently bringing all his private sector savvy and administrative smarts to reorganizing the PNP)

General Secretary Peter Bunting

AND Vice President Angela Brown Burke (ready to take over Maxine Henry Wilson’s constituency as soon as Maxine realizes it’s time to pack her bags, husband Paul Burke is still one of her biggest assets).

Vice President Angela Brown Burke (won more votes last Saturday than Portia or Peter)

Not to mention all the other young and not-so-young successors to in-power-far-too-long Portia, Peter, Maxine, Phillip, Bobby, Danny etc namely Basil Waite, Lisa Hanna, Natalie Neita Headley, Ian Hayles, Mark Golding, Raymond Pryce and Damion Crawford…….

The fact is that Portia has no successors in the party who are in her image (black, working-poor class origin, poorly educated, female) and Peter Phillip’s party, the party of Norman Manley (well educated brownings), is now in the hands of well educated black people.

The whole class battle is already history and vanishes with Portia. Still, we will hear about it as long as Portia is leader of the PNP and sending shudders through the middle class/would-be middle class.

As for Peter Phillips, he is, as they say, a slug who has landed in salt. A slow painful death of his non-too-stellar political career seems likely to follow.

“The Politics of Change: A Jamaican Testament” (Michael Manley)

Yesterday, Bruce Golding, currently Prime Minister of Jamaica, announced the following measures to deal with crime:

(1) Amend law to allow a person to be detained for up to 72 hours without being charged once authorised by a police officer at the level of assistant commissioner or higher.

(2) Refuse bail for serious crimes and repeat offenders for the first 60 days with provision for the prosecution to appeal against granting bail.

(3) Right to non-invasive DNA, such as a mouth swab from a person charged with an offence.

(4) Establish a DNA database

(5) Amend evidence act to allow for witnesses to provide testimony via videotape. This system could provide protection for witnesses.

(6)Provide for majority verdict in non-capital murder. The law would be amended to allow for conviction by a minimum of nine out of 12 jurors.

All of the above seem fine to me. Now to wait and see:

If, When and How these measures are implemented.

Then we wait to see:

If they will make any difference at all…….

“Armed and Female: Twelve Million American Women Own Guns, Should You?” (Paxton Quigley)

Portia versus Peter : Should we care ?

Does it matter who leads the Opposition PNP right now ? Not really. Not when the choice is between Portia Simpson - Miller and Peter Phillips. Both are long time politicians who’ve held powerful positions in the Cabinet over the last 18 years. Anything that they were planning to do in government, or in their garrison constituencies, they should have done already. I don’t think either of them deserves another term in government.

I prefer Portia (she’s easier on the eye and seems to be a much nicer person) but if Peter becomes leader of the party in September and then loses a general election within the next year, the younger generation in the PNP will be poised to push the old guard (Portia, Peter, Omar, Maxine, Bobby, Roger etc) aside and take over the party in 2012/2013.

Pushing the old guard aside is a pre-condition for renewing the PNP. So if the start of the new brooms sweeping clean is predicated on Portia’s defeat in September, I guess I’m for it.

I’m also for Bruce calling a general election shortly after Peter Phillips takes over the PNP and trouncing him soundly at the polls. Then the PNP can get back to the business of cleaning up its’ act, and Prime Minister Golding can settle down to governing with a healthy majority without having to appease every single JLP don and every single JLP moneybags and every single JLP M.P…….

“The Power of Early Speed (Elements of Handicapping)” (Steve Klein)

Deserving our governments ?

About this time last year the big political news was the upcoming election, the polls showing that the PNP were ahead, and PM Portia naming Lisa Hanna as the PNP candidate for South East St.Ann. Also we found out that Bob Woolmer probably wasn’t murdered.

This year Portia is no longer PM, the polls are still showing that the PNP is ahead, and Lisa Hanna is the MP for SE St.Ann. Bob Woolmer is hopefully resting in peace.

“Cricket the Bob Woolmer Way” ()

So now we have a JLP government, we have free health care for all and we have slightly cheaper education (the government is paying tuition fees, but books, extracurricular activities and “school development funds” remain the responsibility of parents). Let it not be said that the new government has not kept its promises or that they have “done nothing”.

Still, it is pretty amazing how little the change of government has changed anything. This is partly because we have all been hit over the head with high food prices and gas prices.

And none of those “jobs, jobs, jobs” have materialized (unless you are a member of the new JLP administration).

And the murder rate has risen again.

And PM Golding’s innumerable Cabinet Ministers are sounding and behaving like they weren’t so much “shadowing” the PNP Ministers for all those years, as learning to faithfully imitate their words, bad habits and corrupt practices……

And Air Jamaica is still soaring to new heights (of debt).

Yup. We’re eating a big helping of same-old-same-old. Tastes very familiar……

“The X-Files - Fight the Future (Widescreen Edition)” (Rob Bowman)

Seems that we were fools. Far from denting the murder rate, the new administration has followed the path of every administration since the 1960’s and presided over a yet higher murder rate. Once again we have to recall that Prime Minister Bruce Golding represents a JLP garrison constituency - drugs, guns and dons rule his land, just as Portia Simpson Miller represents a drug, don and gun ruled PNP garrison. P.J. Patterson represented a rural western constituency and did he make a difference ? Not one whit………

In addition, to the Government’s fumbling management of the national security portfolio, Butch Stewart (he of the Sandals Hotels and owner of the Daily Observer) let the curtain fall for a moment and showed us how perfectly he controls Prime Minister Golding and the Cabinet: the Daily Observer said the Commissioner of Police should go and he went, albeit for less than 24 hours.

Butch is practiced at overreaching, and failing to understand the limits of his power. He it was who declared that he had seen heavy rains that wreaked more damage than last August’s Hurricane Dean, and he it was who had to withdraw that immediately and make a big contribution to hurricane relief. Back when he was a PNP supporter these gaffes and retractions happened so regularly that most of us ceased to notice.

The difference now is that Butch’s star is still ascending the JLP sky - this administration is 4 seats and a few court cases from oblivion and supporters with money cannot be dissed until after the next general election (scheduled for SOON).

The PNP is in disarray and fighting among themselves. Who could want them back in power ? And yet, I’m about to revise my New Year prediction that Jamaicans will never recover their enthusiasm for Leader of the Opposition Portia Simpson Miller.

Bruce seems determined to make Sister P look good.….and he’s also determined to do a disservice to Leader of Opposition Wannabe Peter Phillips….Because, after all, Bruce and Peter are supposed to have the same skill set (articulate, thoughtful managers who can deliver results)……This last week has reminded us that Peter Phillips spent many years (5 or 6) as Minister of National Security with very little (the Scotland Yardies and the locking up of PNP don, Zekes, apart) to show for it. And that while Portia was as absent from the controls as Bruce appears to be, at least she made warm, comforting inclusive speeches, while Bruce’s recent speeches seem designed to encourage hate and division (because we don’t have enough already…)

Forget food and fertilizer prices over which the government has no control……where is the leadership, where is the firm hand on the rudder, where are the good government promises ? This many weeks long sense of doom and chaos is what we elected the JLP for ?

P.S. Much thanks and blessings to Usain Bolt and Senator Barack Obama (Democratic Presidential nominee) for shining some light over our way……….

“The Harder They Come(Laserdisc)(Widescreen)(Criterion Collection)” (Perry Henzell)

Tourism and the environment

Butch Stewart’s war with the Spaniards forced the Prime Minister to do what no environmentalist or planner thought possible : he has required a foreign hotel investor, in this case the Riu Hotels, to abide by local law and regulations. More power to Butch. I’m trusting Mr. Stewart and his deep pockets, (and Mr. Golding facing the prospect of another general election soon) to make sure that Riu’s fourth floor is actually knocked down….

How likely is this to actually to happen ? Well, the site is closed apparently. Doubtless to allow Riu’s architects and engineers to decide the best way to proceed….(or to allow for their lawyers and lobbyists to figure out how to twist the Prime Minister’s arm).

In any case, what has happened to the effort to force the Riu at Mammee Bay to fix its waste water problem ? Presumably it was the Riu’s refusal to deal with this lesser problem that forced the Prime Minister to use the heavy artillery over their hotel still under construction.

Riu Ocho Rios at Mammee Bay

Crime

The Cabinet has been reshuffled to make way for Colonel Trevor McMillan as the new Minister of National Security.We can only hope and pray that he can make a difference.

Dual citizenship cases

Phyllis Mitchell (PNP, losing candidate) has won her appeal in her case against Gregory Mair (JLP MP, Venezuelan citizen). The next general election is a few weeks closer.

Peter vs Portia and Jamaica vs Air Jamaica

Whose years of long service will come to an ignominious end sooner ? Will it be Portia or Air Jamaica ?

All in all, lots of serious things to take mek joke…..maybe next week.

As per usual for this year, it is contests and hope for the future that take precedence over grim realities. Yes, I mean, Obama finally winning the nomination (it can be as early as this Tuesday, May 20, when Kentucky and Oregon vote). Hillary Clinton’s determination is admirable, but, at this point, tiresome.

“Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance” (Barack Obama)

“The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream” (Barack Obama)